The American Democratic Primary is all but underway. Voters in Iowa will be heading to the polls on February 3rd. Twelve candidates are vying for the unenviable task of taking on Donald Trump in November's general election, where they will be most likely brought to tears by the Donald's incessant bullying and stubborn refusal to recognize material facts. Nine of the primary candidates don't have a shot at winning the party nomination. They're essentially wasting fossil fuels and donor money flying across the country. Three candidates -- Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders, have an actual chance to win nomination. I've analyzed their messaging, strategy and policy for a couple weeks. I think only one of the three has an outside shot at beating Donald Trump.
I believe Joe Biden has the worst chance of the three major Democratic candidates to become President. He does, however, have arguably the best chance to win the primary. He was a good Vice-President in a likable regime. He also looks and acts like the type of dude who would be President. This gives him enough cache to sway the people who vote in primaries -- namely, politically savvy party-lifers who are out of touch with common people. The buck stops there, though. Americans on both sides are sick of boring centrist platforms. They're also sick of stuffy, quaffed white dudes in well-tailored suits. Can you imagine a single soul who didn't feel obligated to do their civic duty getting off the couch and voting for Joe Biden? The dude is like a Democratic Mitt Romney. He looks like a President, but he has no messaging, no platform, and no chance.
Elizabeth Warren is a more likable and PR-savvy candidate than Biden. Her base is riled up and ready to support her. Unfortunately, I don't see her appealing beyond that base in a way that can meaningfully challenge Trump. Her angle seems to be "I'm With Her 2.0". After last week's primary debate, she attacked Bernie Sanders on stage for lying on her name. This has been the most memorable part of her campaign to date. I feel like her game plan, if nominated, would be to bring that same energy at Trump. She'd attack him for being sexist, racist, brutish and uncouth. In a sane world, that would be a pretty good plan. However, Trump has proven --for five years-- to be the Teflon Don when it comes to that shit. Everyone who thinks Trump's a bad person already knows he's a bad person. Everyone who thinks Trump's a good person is convinced he's some sort of divine machination sent to dismantle a pedophile cabal. There's no point in beating a dead horse. Besides, Warren might have some good progressive policies, but honestly I don't know what they are. That speaks to her lack of a cohesive message.
From a PR standpoint, the only candidate I think has a snowball's chance in hell of beating Trump is Bernie Sanders. Sanders' campaign is humming. He has a target audience, messaging, and a strong brand. He's targeting working class millenials -- many of whom face student loan debt or precarious work. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau can attest to how powerful this voting block is if you can mobilize it. Sanders' messaging is crystal clear - It's time to reduce wealth inequality in America. He's going to do that with higher taxes on the rich. This will provide the funding for universal healthcare and student loan relief, without burdening the working class. That's his message, whether it's realistic or not. The "Bernie brand" is strong. Sanders comes across as someone who's consistently championed progressive ideas. This consistency has earned him an endorsement from podcast superstar Joe Rogan, whose massive fanbase is largely apolitical or populist. The primary may have left some chinks in Sander's armour. He's faced criticism about the sexist undertones of the Warren beef and some blowback from people who think Joe Rogan is alt-right. The people who care about this stuff aren't voting for Trump, though. If Sanders wins the primary, I expect this will be swept under the rug.
There are two major things working against Sanders, should he win. The first is the connotation of the socialist bogeyman in America. You can be sure Donald Trump will call Sanders a socialist at every turn, as that word definitely has power among people over 40. Sanders would do best to ignore this. Admitting he's a socialist could be political suicide. The next thing is Sanders' poor health. Expect Trump to pull at this string as hard and often as he can. Trump destroyed opponent after opponent using personal attacks in the 2016 campaign. Nobody is going to beat him at character assassination, and trying to reason with him is a fool's game. Any Democrat who wants to be president in 2020 needs to rise above. They need a strong message and the willpower to stick to it. So far, it seems like Sanders has that. Warren and Biden do not.
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